- A market entry study answers three questions: is the market worth it, what barriers does it have and how do we get in; feasibility adds the financial and operational calculation.
- The first stage is a screening of markets based on secondary data, with explicit criteria and weights set before the results are seen.
- Market potential is estimated by at least two independent routes, top-down and bottom-up, and the gap between them is information, not error.
- Interviews with importers, distributors and retail buyers say more about real access to the market than any statistic.
- Research instruments are adapted to the language and culture of the target market, with translation that is checked, not merely transposed.
1. The problem: export decisions made after a contact at a trade fair
A wine or canned food producer from the Republic of Moldova meets an interested distributor from an EU country at an international trade fair. The conversation goes well, the distributor asks for samples and a price list, and the company starts preparing new labels, certifications and a promotion budget. Nobody has checked how large the segment the product would compete in actually is, what prices retailers charge there, what margin a typical distributor expects, which labelling and certification requirements apply, or whether this particular distributor has access to the chains that matter. Foreign companies weighing an entry into the Moldovan market on the strength of a few macroeconomic figures face the same situation in reverse. The market entry study is the instrument that asks these questions before the budget is spent.
The risk is not only the money invested. A failed market entry leaves traces: a disappointed distributor, a brand associated with a product delisted from the shelf, trade relationships that are hard to rebuild. And a good market approached through the wrong channel can look, wrongly, like a bad market.
2. What a market entry study is and how it relates to feasibility
A market entry study answers three questions: is the market worth it (size, growth, prices, competition), what barriers does it have (regulation, tariffs, certification, cultural preferences, the structure of distribution) and how do we get in (through an importer, distributor, agent, direct sales, e-commerce or a presence of our own). The result is a reasoned recommendation: whether to enter, which market first, with which product and through which channel.
A feasibility study is broader. It takes the conclusions about the market and adds the financial calculation, operational requirements, production capacity, logistics and risk scenarios. The market component is the foundation, however: a business plan built on a wrong estimate of demand is wrong however rigorous the rest of the calculation. That is why funders and export support programmes usually ask for a documented market analysis rather than sales projections alone.
3. When it is the right choice and when it is not
A market entry study is the right choice when the investment needed to enter is significant: certification, product adaptation, marketing, stock, an office or a plant. It is also useful when the company has to choose between several possible markets and has resources for one or two, or when a funder or partner asks for documented justification.
It is not the right choice when entry is small and reversible: a trial order from a distributor, with no special investment, can itself be the cheapest form of research, provided its results are tracked systematically. Nor does it make sense when the decision has already been taken and the study would serve only to confirm it; a study commissioned to say "yes" protects nobody from risk.
4. Stage 1: screening markets on secondary data
When there are several candidate markets, the first stage is a quick screening based on public data: foreign trade statistics, national production and consumption statistics, industry reports, databases of international organisations, the applicable tariff regime and trade agreements. The method is the one described in the guide on desk research, and the data analysis and desk research service applies it systematically.
Each market is assessed against a list of criteria set before the data are seen: the size and growth of category imports, average import prices, the presence of competitors from countries with a similar profile, tariff and non-tariff barriers, distance and logistics cost, language and cultural proximity, and the existence of a diaspora as a first audience. The criteria are weighted and the markets ranked. The weights are fixed in advance because otherwise the team inevitably adjusts them until the market it preferred from the outset comes out on top.
5. Stage 2: the target market environment and barriers to entry
For the markets that survive screening, a profile of the environment is built. It covers the market itself (structure of demand, prices, brands, channels), the legal and regulatory framework (standards, mandatory certification, labelling rules in the local language, restrictions on certain categories), the economic environment (purchasing power, exchange rate, usual payment terms), the structure of distribution (who controls access to the shelf, and on what terms) and the socio-cultural environment (consumption habits, perceptions of the country of origin, preferences in taste and packaging).
Non-tariff barriers often matter more than tariffs. A certification that takes months, a labelling requirement that forces a new pack, or a listing fee demanded by the large chains can change the profitability calculation completely. These costs need to be identified in the study, not discovered after the first contract.
6. Stage 3: estimating market potential
Market potential is estimated by two independent routes. Top-down: starting from the population or the number of relevant buyers, a chain of ratios (what share consumes the category, how often, at what average price, what share buys in the segment where the product competes) arrives at the value of the segment. Bottom-up: starting from the volumes sold by distributors, importers or shops, added up and extrapolated. The two estimates almost never match; the gap between them shows which assumption is fragile and where it needs checking more closely. The methods are covered in the guide on market sizing and segmentation.
The result is presented as a range, not a single figure, and complemented by a separate estimate of the realistic share the company can win in its first years, given the chosen channel and the existing competition. A hypothetical example: a segment estimated at 8-12 million euros a year, of which a new entrant with a single regional distributor can realistically target a fraction of a percent in its first year. The gap between market potential and realistic sales is usually the most valuable lesson of the study.
7. Stage 4: fieldwork in the target market
Secondary data describe the market; only fieldwork shows how to get into it. The most useful component is in-depth interviews with importers, distributors, retail chain buyers, trade associations and, sometimes, indirect competitors. They answer questions no statistic covers: which margins are usual, which payment terms, which minimum volumes, how long listing takes, what would persuade them to take on a new supplier and what made them drop others. In essence this is a B2B study, following the rules described in the guide on B2B market research.
For consumer products, two components are added. A shelf check in the relevant stores documents real prices, the brands present, packs and the space given to the category. And when the product is new to the market, a test with local consumers shows whether taste, pack and price are accepted. Instruments are adapted to the target's language and culture: questionnaires and guides are translated, independently back-translated into the source language for checking and pretested with local respondents, and scales are checked for equivalence. A multilingual team reduces the risk that questions mean something else in another language.
8. Analysis and the entry decision
The conclusions of the market entry study are brought together in a decision framework. For each market analysed, it sets out the estimated potential, the barriers and their cost, the possible channels with the advantages and terms of each, realistic price positioning against competitors and the main risks. The final recommendation answers three questions explicitly: do we enter or not, with what adapted offer and by which entry mode. For a small firm, the entry mode is usually an importer or distributor; for one with more resources, it may be an agent, a sales subsidiary or a combination with online sales.
A good recommendation also includes stop conditions: which indicators, after how long, would show that the entry is not working. If the analysis is part of a feasibility study, the same figures feed directly into the financial calculation and the risk scenarios. Turning the conclusions into a marketing plan and budget is the part covered by strategic marketing consulting, and for companies that have to present the results to a board or a funder, the decision support service structures the case.
9. Limits, common errors and the stages at a glance
- Overestimating share. "If we take just 1% of the market" is the most common error of reasoning: share is not taken, it is won through channel, price and promotion.
- Old or incompatible data. Foreign trade statistics use product codes that often mix different segments, and data from different countries are not defined identically.
- A single source. Conclusions built on one distributor reflect that distributor's interests.
- Mechanical translation. A questionnaire translated without back-translation and pretesting produces data about questions other than the ones intended.
- Ignoring hidden costs. Listing fees, mandatory promotions and long payment terms can make an attractive market unprofitable.
| Stage | Question | Sources | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market screening | Where is it worth looking | Trade statistics, industry reports, tariff regime | Weighted ranking of candidate markets |
| Environment and barriers | What rules and entry costs exist | Legislation, standards, industry sources, expert interviews | Market profile and list of barriers with costs |
| Market potential | What the segment is worth and what share is realistic | Secondary data, top-down and bottom-up estimates | Potential range and sales scenarios |
| Fieldwork | How exactly to get in, and on what terms | Interviews with importers and retailers, shelf checks, consumer test | Trade terms, price positioning, product acceptance |
| Decision | Do we enter, where, how | All previous stages | Recommendation, entry mode, stop conditions |
10. What to ask the agency
- The market screening criteria and weights, set before the analysis.
- The list of secondary sources, with the year of the data and the limits of each.
- The estimate of potential by at least two routes, with the differences explained.
- The number and profile of contacts in the target market: importers, distributors, retailers, experts.
- The procedure for translating, back-translating and pretesting the instruments.
- Identification of non-tariff barriers and an estimate of their cost.
- A recommendation by entry mode, with stop conditions.
- Compliance with data protection rules, including the GDPR for interviews in the European Union.
A market entry study does not guarantee export success, but it removes the most expensive surprises and turns a hope into a plan with testable assumptions. If you are assessing a new market for your products, or an entry into the market of the Republic of Moldova, talk to the Perspicuus desk research and data analysis team about what the right study for your decision would look like.
See also: Data analysis and desk research Strategic marketing consulting Multilingual team Desk research: what you learn before fieldwork Market sizing and segmentation B2B market research
Do you have a decision to take?
Tell us the problem, not the method. We propose the right research design and explain what it can and cannot deliver.